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Gaziantep FK vs Sakaryaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Sakaryaspor
Sakaryaspor
12/2/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundGaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gaziantep FK77%
×Draw15%
Sakaryaspor8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
2.60
Sakaryaspor
0.72

Gaziantep FK creates 261% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
2.21
Sakaryaspor
0.60

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
0.84
Sakaryaspor
3.00

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par
Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Sakaryaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
92%
Gaziantep FK or Sakaryaspor
85%
Draw or Sakaryaspor
23%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
56%
Sakaryaspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
92%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
73%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
47%
Sakaryaspor 1+ goals
51%
Sakaryaspor 2+ goals
16%
Sakaryaspor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
90%
Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Sakaryaspor away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 2.21 + Sakaryaspor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Sakaryaspor attack 0.60 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
77%
level
15%
Sakaryaspor scores more
8%

Gaziantep FK at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Gaziantep FK 3–1 Sakaryaspor

Gaziantep FK beat Sakaryaspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 2, 2021.

The match was played at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Gaziantep.