Gaziantep FK 2–0 Keçiörengücü: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Keçiörengücü

E. Kol 66'

E. Koç 6'

9/27/2012

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKamil Ocak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gaziantep FK48%

×Draw21%

Keçiörengücü31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchKeçiörengücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.71

Gaziantep FK

2.13

Keçiörengücü

1.71

Gaziantep FK creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.75

1.67

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

1.50

Keçiörengücü

1.75

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

1.67

Keçiörengücü

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Keçiörengücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

69%

Gaziantep FK or Keçiörengücü

79%

Draw or Keçiörengücü

52%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

28%

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

88%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

63%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

35%

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

82%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

51%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

60%

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Keçiörengücü away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.50 + Keçiörengücü defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Keçiörengücü attack 1.75 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

48%

level

21%

Keçiörengücü scores more

31%

Gaziantep FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

E. Koç

57'

U. Bayraktar← V. Yılmaz

59'

66'

68'

70'

70'

75'

E. Özen← E. Kol

Gaziantep

Keçiörengücü

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kol

⚽

Koç

▼

Kömürcü

Manager: M. Şahan

57'▲U. Bayraktar←▼V. Yılmaz

68'▲S. Aksoy←▼A. Kömürcü

75'▲E. Özen←▼E. Kol

Gaziantep FK substitutes

BayraktarAksoyÖzenDevretÜçgünCanYalçın

Manager: H. Kaçmaz

59'▲Ö. Yaşar←▼O. Aydın

70'▲Y. Duman←▼S. Sever

70'▲Z. Aydın←▼S. Deniz

Keçiörengücü substitutes

YaşarDumanAydınKoçYaşarKılıçGüngör

Match Recap: Gaziantep FK vs Keçiörengücü

Gaziantep FK beat Keçiörengücü 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 27, 2012.

Goals: E. Koç (6'), E. Kol (66').

The match was played at Kamil Ocak Stadyumu in Gaziantep.

Gaziantep FK vs Keçiörengücü — Türkiye Kupası 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gaziantep FK vs Keçiörengücü