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Gaziantep FK vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — 1. Lig 2018

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
5/12/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 33Gaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gaziantep FK45%
×Draw27%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
1.41
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.04

Gaziantep FK creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
1.56
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.26

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
0.83
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.25

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par
Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
72%
Gaziantep FK or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
73%
Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
55%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
22%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
76%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
41%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
17%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
65%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
28%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
62%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.56 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.26 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
45%
level
27%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
28%

Gaziantep FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaziantep FK vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Gaziantep FK 2-0 in 1. Lig on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Gaziantep.