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Gaziantep FK vs Etimesgut SK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Etimesgut SK
Etimesgut SK
12/7/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundKalyon Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gaziantep FK67%
×Draw19%
Etimesgut SK14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
2.23
Etimesgut SK
0.92

Gaziantep FK creates 142% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
2.21
Etimesgut SK
1.00

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
0.84
Etimesgut SK
2.25

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par
Etimesgut SK+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Etimesgut SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
86%
Gaziantep FK or Etimesgut SK
81%
Draw or Etimesgut SK
33%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
43%
Etimesgut SK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
89%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
65%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
38%
Etimesgut SK 1+ goals
60%
Etimesgut SK 2+ goals
23%
Etimesgut SK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
82%
Etimesgut SK (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Etimesgut SK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 2.21 + Etimesgut SK defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Etimesgut SK attack 1.00 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
67%
level
19%
Etimesgut SK scores more
14%

Gaziantep FK at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaziantep FK vs Etimesgut SK

Gaziantep FK and Etimesgut SK drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Kalyon Stadyumu in Gaziantep.