Gaziantep FK 1–1 Bursaspor: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bursaspor

12/30/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundGaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gaziantep FK52%

×Draw23%

Bursaspor25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchBursaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.21

Gaziantep FK

1.82

Bursaspor

1.21

Gaziantep FK creates 50% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

2.21

creates per match

1.57

0.84

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

2.21

Bursaspor

1.57

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

0.84

Bursaspor

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Bursaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

75%

Gaziantep FK or Bursaspor

77%

Draw or Bursaspor

48%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

29%

Bursaspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

84%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

54%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

27%

Bursaspor 1+ goals

70%

Bursaspor 2+ goals

34%

Bursaspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

67%

Bursaspor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 2.21 + Bursaspor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.82

Bursaspor attack 1.57 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

52%

level

23%

Bursaspor scores more

25%

Gaziantep FK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff