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Gaziantep FK vs Boluspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Boluspor
Boluspor
12/22/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundGaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gaziantep FK62%
×Draw21%
Boluspor17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
1.97
Boluspor
0.92

Gaziantep FK creates 114% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
2.21
Boluspor
1.00

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
0.84
Boluspor
1.73

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par
Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Boluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
83%
Gaziantep FK or Boluspor
79%
Draw or Boluspor
38%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
37%
Boluspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
86%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
58%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
31%
Boluspor 1+ goals
60%
Boluspor 2+ goals
23%
Boluspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
78%
Boluspor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 2.21 + Boluspor defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.97

Boluspor attack 1.00 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
62%
level
21%
Boluspor scores more
17%

Gaziantep FK at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Gaziantep FK 3–1 Boluspor

Gaziantep FK beat Boluspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 22, 2022.

The match was played at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Gaziantep.