Gaziantep FK 3–0 Altay: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Gaziantep FK

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Altay

11/3/2018

1. Lig · Round 11Gaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gaziantep FK48%

×Draw26%

Altay26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchAltay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

Gaziantep FK

1.52

Altay

1.04

Gaziantep FK creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 87 away

1.56

creates per match

1.26

0.83

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

1.56

Altay

1.26

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

0.83

Altay

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Altay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

74%

Gaziantep FK or Altay

74%

Draw or Altay

52%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

24%

Altay wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

78%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

45%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

20%

Altay 1+ goals

65%

Altay 2+ goals

28%

Altay 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

65%

Altay (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Altay away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.56 + Altay defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Altay attack 1.26 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

48%

level

26%

Altay scores more

26%

Gaziantep FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff