Gazelle 3–2 Yafoot: Result & Stats | Elite One

Gazelle

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Yafoot

3/19/2023

Elite One · Round 17Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gazelle45%

×Draw28%

Yafoot27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GazelleExpected goals in this matchYafoot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.96

Gazelle

1.33

Yafoot

0.96

Gazelle creates 39% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 31 away

1.24

creates per match

0.97

0.96

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Gazelle

1.24

Yafoot

0.97

allows per match

Gazelle

0.96

Yafoot

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par

Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

Yafoot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw

73%

Gazelle or Yafoot

72%

Draw or Yafoot

55%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+

21%

Yafoot wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals

74%

Gazelle 2+ goals

38%

Gazelle 3+ goals

15%

Yafoot 1+ goals

62%

Yafoot 2+ goals

25%

Yafoot 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)

63%

Yafoot (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Yafoot attack 0.97 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gazelle scores more

45%

level

28%

Yafoot scores more

27%

Gazelle at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff