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Gazelle vs Les Astres — Elite One 2019

Gazelle
Gazelle
FT
3 – 1
Les Astres
Les Astres
2/18/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 15Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Gazelle43%
×Draw28%
Les Astres29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gazelle
1.27
Les Astres
0.99

Gazelle creates 28% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 75 away

creates per match

Gazelle
1.24
Les Astres
1.03

allows per match

Gazelle
0.96
Les Astres
1.31

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw
71%
Gazelle or Les Astres
72%
Draw or Les Astres
57%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+
19%
Les Astres wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals
72%
Gazelle 2+ goals
36%
Gazelle 3+ goals
14%
Les Astres 1+ goals
63%
Les Astres 2+ goals
26%
Les Astres 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)
60%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gazelle scores more
43%
level
28%
Les Astres scores more
29%

Gazelle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Gazelle 3–1 Les Astres

Gazelle beat Les Astres 3-1 in Elite One on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia in Garoua.