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Gazelle vs Jeunes Fauves — Elite One 2019

Gazelle
Gazelle
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
3/12/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 16Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Gazelle50%
×Draw26%
Jeunes Fauves24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gazelle
1.52
Jeunes Fauves
0.97

Gazelle creates 57% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 47 away

creates per match

Gazelle
1.24
Jeunes Fauves
0.98

allows per match

Gazelle
0.96
Jeunes Fauves
1.81

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par
Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

Jeunes Fauves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw
76%
Gazelle or Jeunes Fauves
74%
Draw or Jeunes Fauves
50%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+
25%
Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals
78%
Gazelle 2+ goals
45%
Gazelle 3+ goals
20%
Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
62%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
25%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)
67%
Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jeunes Fauves attack 0.98 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gazelle scores more
50%
level
26%
Jeunes Fauves scores more
24%

Gazelle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gazelle vs Jeunes Fauves

Jeunes Fauves beat Gazelle 1-0 in Elite One on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia in Garoua.