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Gazelle vs Fovu Club — Elite One 2019

Gazelle
Gazelle
FT
2 – 0
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
11/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 4Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Gazelle41%
×Draw29%
Fovu Club30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gazelle
1.23
Fovu Club
1.01

Gazelle creates 22% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 67 away

creates per match

Gazelle
1.24
Fovu Club
1.06

allows per match

Gazelle
0.96
Fovu Club
1.22

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw
70%
Gazelle or Fovu Club
71%
Draw or Fovu Club
59%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+
18%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals
71%
Gazelle 2+ goals
35%
Gazelle 3+ goals
13%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
64%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
27%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)
58%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gazelle scores more
41%
level
29%
Fovu Club scores more
30%

Gazelle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gazelle vs Fovu Club

Gazelle beat Fovu Club 2-0 in Elite One on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia in Garoua.