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Gazelle vs Fauve Azur Elite — Elite One 2019

Gazelle
Gazelle
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
3/9/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 15Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gazelle45%
×Draw31%
Fauve Azur Elite25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gazelle
1.16
Fauve Azur Elite
0.78

Gazelle creates 49% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gazelle
1.24
Fauve Azur Elite
0.60

allows per match

Gazelle
0.96
Fauve Azur Elite
1.07

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par
Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw
75%
Gazelle or Fauve Azur Elite
69%
Draw or Fauve Azur Elite
55%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+
19%
Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals
69%
Gazelle 2+ goals
32%
Gazelle 3+ goals
11%
Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
54%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
18%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)
64%
Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gazelle scores more
45%
level
31%
Fauve Azur Elite scores more
25%

Gazelle at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gazelle vs Fauve Azur Elite

Gazelle beat Fauve Azur Elite 2-0 in Elite One on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia in Garoua.