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Gazelle vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite One 2019

Gazelle
Gazelle
ABD
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
6/20/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gazelle37%
×Draw28%
Dynamo de Douala35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gazelle
1.19
Dynamo de Douala
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gazelle
1.24
Dynamo de Douala
1.34

allows per match

Gazelle
0.96
Dynamo de Douala
1.13

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw
65%
Gazelle or Dynamo de Douala
72%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
63%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+
16%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals
70%
Gazelle 2+ goals
33%
Gazelle 3+ goals
12%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
68%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
32%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)
51%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gazelle scores more
37%
level
28%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
35%

Gazelle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gazelle face Dynamo de Douala (Elite One)

Elite One returns with Gazelle hosting Dynamo de Douala. Match starts June 20, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.