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Gazelle vs Canon — Elite One 2019

Gazelle
Gazelle
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Canon
Canon
A. Ako 84', 82' (pen)
6/17/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Gazelle36%
×Draw29%
Canon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gazelle
1.11
Canon
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 88 away

creates per match

Gazelle
1.24
Canon
1.18

allows per match

Gazelle
0.96
Canon
0.98

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par
Canon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

Canon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw
66%
Gazelle or Canon
71%
Draw or Canon
64%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+
15%
Canon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals
67%
Gazelle 2+ goals
30%
Gazelle 3+ goals
10%
Canon 1+ goals
66%
Canon 2+ goals
29%
Canon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)
51%
Canon (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Canon away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + Canon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Canon attack 1.18 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gazelle scores more
36%
level
29%
Canon scores more
34%

Gazelle at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
82'
A. AkoPenalty
84'
A. Ako

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gazelle 0 – 2 Canon

Canon beat Gazelle 2-0 in Elite One on June 17, 2026.

Goals: A. Ako (82' pen, 84').