Gazelle 1–2 APEJES Academy: Result & Stats

Gazelle

FT

1 – 2

APEJES Academy

12/20/2022

Elite One · Round 8Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Gazelle42%

×Draw29%

APEJES Academy29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GazelleExpected goals in this matchAPEJES Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.98

Gazelle

1.24

APEJES Academy

0.98

Gazelle creates 27% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 67 away

1.24

creates per match

1.01

0.96

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Gazelle

1.24

APEJES Academy

1.01

allows per match

Gazelle

0.96

APEJES Academy

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par

APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

APEJES Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw

71%

Gazelle or APEJES Academy

71%

Draw or APEJES Academy

58%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+

19%

APEJES Academy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals

71%

Gazelle 2+ goals

35%

Gazelle 3+ goals

13%

APEJES Academy 1+ goals

62%

APEJES Academy 2+ goals

26%

APEJES Academy 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)

59%

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gazelle scores more

42%

level

29%

APEJES Academy scores more

29%

Gazelle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff