Gazalkent 0–2 Lochin: Result & Stats | Pro League A

Gazalkent

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lochin

A. Samariddinov 64'

A. Okhtoev 16'

4/26/2026

Pro League A · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gazalkent19%

×Draw25%

Lochin56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GazalkentExpected goals in this matchLochin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.56

Gazalkent

0.78

Lochin

1.56

Lochin creates 100% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.80

1.33

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Gazalkent

1.17

Lochin

1.80

allows per match

Gazalkent

1.33

Lochin

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gazalkent+0.00on par

Lochin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazalkent ↓

Lochin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gazalkent or draw

44%

Gazalkent or Lochin

75%

Draw or Lochin

81%

Winning margin

Gazalkent wins by 2+

6%

Lochin wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Gazalkent 1+ goals

54%

Gazalkent 2+ goals

18%

Gazalkent 3+ goals

4%

Lochin 1+ goals

79%

Lochin 2+ goals

46%

Lochin 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Gazalkent (draw refunded)

25%

Lochin (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazalkent at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Lochin away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazalkent attack 1.17 + Lochin defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.78

Lochin attack 1.80 + Gazalkent defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gazalkent scores more

19%

level

25%

Lochin scores more

56%

Lochin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lochin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Okhtoev

64'

A. Samariddinov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff