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Gazalkent vs BuxDu — Pro League A 2026

Gazalkent
Gazalkent
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BuxDu
BuxDu
F. Olimov 78' (pen)
M. Fayzullaev 64', 26'
4/6/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 1Milliy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gazalkent64%
×Draw22%
BuxDu14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gazalkent
1.78
BuxDu
0.67

Gazalkent creates 166% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gazalkent
1.17
BuxDu
0.00

allows per match

Gazalkent
1.33
BuxDu
2.40

finishing

Gazalkent+0.00on par
BuxDu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazalkent ↓

BuxDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gazalkent or draw
86%
Gazalkent or BuxDu
78%
Draw or BuxDu
36%

Winning margin

Gazalkent wins by 2+
37%
BuxDu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gazalkent 1+ goals
83%
Gazalkent 2+ goals
53%
Gazalkent 3+ goals
26%
BuxDu 1+ goals
49%
BuxDu 2+ goals
15%
BuxDu 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gazalkent (draw refunded)
83%
BuxDu (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazalkent at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

BuxDu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazalkent attack 1.17 + BuxDu defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.78

BuxDu attack 0.00 + Gazalkent defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gazalkent scores more
64%
level
22%
BuxDu scores more
14%

Gazalkent at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gazalkent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
M. Fayzullaev
64'
M. Fayzullaev
78'
F. OlimovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gazalkent vs BuxDu

Gazalkent beat BuxDu 3-0 in Pro League A on April 6, 2026.

Goals: M. Fayzullaev (26', 64'), F. Olimov (78' pen).

The match was played at Milliy Stadium in Tashkent.