GAZ Metan Medias vs FCSB — Liga I 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 77+ matches
GAZ Metan Medias32%
FCSB42%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FCSB creates 18% more chances
Season form · 77 home / 155 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
GAZ Metan Medias ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
GAZ Metan Medias at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches
FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
GAZ Metan Medias attack 1.23 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15
FCSB attack 1.51 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
FCSB at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
CFR 1907 ClujFCSB
Universitatea Craiova
FC Astra Giurgiu
Viitorul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FC Botosani
Politehnica Iasi
Dinamo Bucuresti
AFC HermannstadtGAZ Metan Medias
Dunarea Calarasi
FC Voluntari
ConcordiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
GAZ Metan Medias host FCSB on Saturday, 11 December 2021 at 18:30. The match is part of the Liga I 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: GAZ Metan Medias vs FCSB
FCSB beat GAZ Metan Medias 1-0 in Liga I on December 11, 2021.
The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan in Mediaş.