GAZ Metan Medias 1–1 FC Clinceni: Result & Stats

GAZ Metan Medias

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Clinceni

1/30/2021

Liga I · Round 20Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

GAZ Metan Medias50%

×Draw25%

FC Clinceni25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GAZ Metan MediasExpected goals in this matchFC Clinceni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.05

GAZ Metan Medias

1.60

FC Clinceni

1.05

GAZ Metan Medias creates 52% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

1.23

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.23

FC Clinceni

0.90

allows per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.21

FC Clinceni

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAZ Metan Medias ↓

FC Clinceni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

GAZ Metan Medias or draw

75%

GAZ Metan Medias or FC Clinceni

75%

Draw or FC Clinceni

50%

Winning margin

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

26%

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

80%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

47%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

22%

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

65%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

28%

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

67%

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAZ Metan Medias at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAZ Metan Medias attack 1.23 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

50%

level

25%

FC Clinceni scores more

25%

GAZ Metan Medias at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "GAZ Metan Medias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff