Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gavião vs Atletico Paraense — League #1115 2026

Gavião
Gavião
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Paraense
Atletico Paraense
10/5/2025League #1115League #1115

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gavião27%
×Draw28%
Atletico Paraense45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gavião
0.96
Atletico Paraense
1.33

Atletico Paraense creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gavião
1.25
Atletico Paraense
1.67

allows per match

Gavião
1.00
Atletico Paraense
0.67

finishing

Gavião+0.00on par
Atletico Paraense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gavião ↓

Atletico Paraense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gavião or draw
55%
Gavião or Atletico Paraense
72%
Draw or Atletico Paraense
73%

Winning margin

Gavião wins by 2+
10%
Atletico Paraense wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gavião 1+ goals
62%
Gavião 2+ goals
25%
Gavião 3+ goals
7%
Atletico Paraense 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Paraense 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Paraense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gavião (draw refunded)
37%
Atletico Paraense (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gavião at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Atletico Paraense away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gavião attack 1.25 + Atletico Paraense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Atletico Paraense attack 1.67 + Gavião defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gavião scores more
27%
level
28%
Atletico Paraense scores more
45%

Atletico Paraense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico Paraense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1115: Gavião 0–1 Atletico Paraense

Atletico Paraense beat Gavião 1-0 in League #1115 on October 5, 2025.