Gauthiod 2–3 Säffle SK: Result & Stats

Gauthiod

FT

2 – 3

Säffle SK

5/5/2024

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 6Lunnevi IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Gauthiod59%

×Draw20%

Säffle SK21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GauthiodExpected goals in this matchSäffle SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.27

Gauthiod

2.23

Säffle SK

1.27

Gauthiod creates 76% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 26 away

2.23

creates per match

0.81

1.73

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Gauthiod

2.23

Säffle SK

0.81

allows per match

Gauthiod

1.73

Säffle SK

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gauthiod+0.00on par

Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gauthiod ↓

Säffle SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Gauthiod or draw

79%

Gauthiod or Säffle SK

80%

Draw or Säffle SK

41%

Winning margin

Gauthiod wins by 2+

37%

Säffle SK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gauthiod 1+ goals

89%

Gauthiod 2+ goals

65%

Gauthiod 3+ goals

38%

Säffle SK 1+ goals

72%

Säffle SK 2+ goals

36%

Säffle SK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gauthiod (draw refunded)

74%

Säffle SK (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gauthiod at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.73 · 73 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gauthiod attack 2.23 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.23

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Gauthiod defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gauthiod scores more

59%

level

20%

Säffle SK scores more

21%

Gauthiod at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gauthiod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff