Gauthiod 1–1 IF Elfsborg: Result & Stats

Gauthiod

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

IF Elfsborg

8/22/2019

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundLunnevi IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gauthiod16%

×Draw23%

IF Elfsborg62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GauthiodExpected goals in this matchIF Elfsborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.78

Gauthiod

0.76

IF Elfsborg

1.78

IF Elfsborg creates 134% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

0.80

creates per match

2.36

1.20

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Gauthiod

0.80

IF Elfsborg

2.36

allows per match

Gauthiod

1.20

IF Elfsborg

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gauthiod+0.00on par

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gauthiod ↓

IF Elfsborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gauthiod or draw

38%

Gauthiod or IF Elfsborg

77%

Draw or IF Elfsborg

84%

Winning margin

Gauthiod wins by 2+

4%

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Gauthiod 1+ goals

53%

Gauthiod 2+ goals

18%

Gauthiod 3+ goals

4%

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

83%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

53%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Gauthiod (draw refunded)

20%

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gauthiod at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gauthiod attack 0.80 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + Gauthiod defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gauthiod scores more

16%

level

23%

IF Elfsborg scores more

62%

IF Elfsborg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff