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Gauthiod vs Angered BK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Gauthiod
Gauthiod
FT
1 – 3
Angered BK
Angered BK
10/9/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 28Lunnevi IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gauthiod45%
×Draw21%
Angered BK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gauthiod
2.13
Angered BK
1.84

Gauthiod creates 16% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 27 away

creates per match

Gauthiod
2.23
Angered BK
1.96

allows per match

Gauthiod
1.73
Angered BK
2.04

finishing

Gauthiod+0.00on par
Angered BK+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gauthiod ↓

Angered BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gauthiod or draw
66%
Gauthiod or Angered BK
79%
Draw or Angered BK
55%

Winning margin

Gauthiod wins by 2+
26%
Angered BK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gauthiod 1+ goals
88%
Gauthiod 2+ goals
63%
Gauthiod 3+ goals
35%
Angered BK 1+ goals
84%
Angered BK 2+ goals
55%
Angered BK 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gauthiod (draw refunded)
57%
Angered BK (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gauthiod at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.73 · 73 matches

Angered BK away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gauthiod attack 2.23 + Angered BK defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.13

Angered BK attack 1.96 + Gauthiod defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gauthiod scores more
45%
level
21%
Angered BK scores more
34%

Gauthiod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gauthiod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Gauthiod 1–3 Angered BK

Angered BK beat Gauthiod 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Lunnevi IP in Grästorp.