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Gaúcho vs Juventude II — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Gaúcho
Gaúcho
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Juventude II
Juventude II
11/9/2025Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gaúcho65%
×Draw22%
Juventude II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaúcho
1.84
Juventude II
0.67

Gaúcho creates 175% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gaúcho
1.60
Juventude II
0.73

allows per match

Gaúcho
0.60
Juventude II
2.09

finishing

Gaúcho+0.00on par
Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaúcho ↓

Juventude II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gaúcho or draw
87%
Gaúcho or Juventude II
78%
Draw or Juventude II
35%

Winning margin

Gaúcho wins by 2+
39%
Juventude II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gaúcho 1+ goals
84%
Gaúcho 2+ goals
55%
Gaúcho 3+ goals
28%
Juventude II 1+ goals
49%
Juventude II 2+ goals
15%
Juventude II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gaúcho (draw refunded)
83%
Juventude II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaúcho at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaúcho attack 1.60 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.84

Juventude II attack 0.73 + Gaúcho defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gaúcho scores more
65%
level
22%
Juventude II scores more
13%

Gaúcho at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gaúcho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaúcho vs Juventude II

Gaúcho beat Juventude II 2-0 in Copa Gaúcha on November 9, 2025.