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Gaúcho vs Foz Do Iguacu — Serie D 2018

Gaúcho
Gaúcho
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
5/4/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Wolmar Salton (Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gaúcho70%
×Draw21%
Foz Do Iguacu9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaúcho
1.83
Foz Do Iguacu
0.50

Gaúcho creates 266% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gaúcho
0.67
Foz Do Iguacu
0.33

allows per match

Gaúcho
0.67
Foz Do Iguacu
3.00

finishing

Gaúcho+0.00on par
Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaúcho ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gaúcho or draw
91%
Gaúcho or Foz Do Iguacu
79%
Draw or Foz Do Iguacu
30%

Winning margin

Gaúcho wins by 2+
42%
Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gaúcho 1+ goals
84%
Gaúcho 2+ goals
54%
Gaúcho 3+ goals
28%
Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
39%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
9%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Gaúcho (draw refunded)
88%
Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaúcho at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaúcho attack 0.67 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Foz Do Iguacu attack 0.33 + Gaúcho defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Gaúcho scores more
70%
level
21%
Foz Do Iguacu scores more
9%

Gaúcho at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Gaúcho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Gaúcho 2–0 Foz Do Iguacu

Gaúcho beat Foz Do Iguacu 2-0 in Serie D on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Wolmar Salton (Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul).