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Gaúcho vs Aimoré — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Gaúcho
Gaúcho
FT
2 – 0
Aimoré
Aimoré
9/18/2024Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2Bsbios Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gaúcho59%
×Draw25%
Aimoré16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaúcho
1.58
Aimoré
0.69

Gaúcho creates 129% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gaúcho
1.60
Aimoré
0.78

allows per match

Gaúcho
0.60
Aimoré
1.56

finishing

Gaúcho+0.00on par
Aimoré+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaúcho ↓

Aimoré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gaúcho or draw
84%
Gaúcho or Aimoré
75%
Draw or Aimoré
41%

Winning margin

Gaúcho wins by 2+
32%
Aimoré wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gaúcho 1+ goals
79%
Gaúcho 2+ goals
47%
Gaúcho 3+ goals
21%
Aimoré 1+ goals
50%
Aimoré 2+ goals
15%
Aimoré 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gaúcho (draw refunded)
78%
Aimoré (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaúcho at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Aimoré away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaúcho attack 1.60 + Aimoré defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Aimoré attack 0.78 + Gaúcho defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gaúcho scores more
59%
level
25%
Aimoré scores more
16%

Gaúcho at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gaúcho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Gaúcho 2–0 Aimoré

Gaúcho beat Aimoré 2-0 in Copa Gaúcha on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Bsbios Arena in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul.