Gateshead 2–2 York: Result & Stats | League #43

Gateshead

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

York

D. Ward 45+1'

D. Elliott 28'

S. Forde 90'

M. Hancox 37'

1/2/2023

League #43 · Round 26Gateshead International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gateshead38%

×Draw24%

York38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GatesheadExpected goals in this matchYork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

Gateshead

1.54

York

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 48 away

2.00

creates per match

1.63

1.46

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Gateshead

2.00

York

1.63

allows per match

Gateshead

1.46

York

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gateshead+0.00on par

York+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gateshead ↓

York →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gateshead or draw

62%

Gateshead or York

76%

Draw or York

62%

Winning margin

Gateshead wins by 2+

18%

York wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gateshead 1+ goals

79%

Gateshead 2+ goals

45%

Gateshead 3+ goals

20%

York 1+ goals

79%

York 2+ goals

45%

York 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Gateshead (draw refunded)

50%

York (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gateshead at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

York away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gateshead attack 2.00 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

York attack 1.63 + Gateshead defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gateshead scores more

38%

level

24%

York scores more

38%

Gateshead at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gateshead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

36'

37'

40'

45+1'

67'

S. Forde← M. Duckworth

69'

L. Knight← D. Ward

76'

M. Duku← A. Hurst

80'

81'

82'

86'

90+5'

90'

Gateshead

York

1

2

4

3

16

⚽

Hancox

6

McLaughli

28

▼

Duckworth

22

Thomas

19

Pybus

7

▼

14

31

2

5

6

3

8

10

▼

Olley

12

⚽

▼

Ward

42

Conteh

11

Campbell

9

⚽

Elliott

Manager: M. Williamson

69'▲L. Knight←▼D. Ward

80'▲E. Forbes←▼G. Olley

Gateshead substitutes

27Knight14Forbes4Jarvis21Elliot29Carty

Manager: D. Webb

67'▲S. Forde←▼M. Duckworth

76'▲M. Duku←▼A. Hurst

York substitutes

9Forde27Duku10Burgess17Sanders18Whitley