Gateshead 1–0 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Gateshead

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sutton Utd

R. Oates 64'

9/3/2016

League #43 · Round 10Gateshead International Stadium (Gateshead, Tyne and Wear)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gateshead43%

×Draw24%

Sutton Utd32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GatesheadExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.35

Gateshead

1.60

Sutton Utd

1.35

Gateshead creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 45 away

2.00

creates per match

1.24

1.46

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Gateshead

2.00

Sutton Utd

1.24

allows per match

Gateshead

1.46

Sutton Utd

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gateshead+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gateshead ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gateshead or draw

68%

Gateshead or Sutton Utd

76%

Draw or Sutton Utd

57%

Winning margin

Gateshead wins by 2+

22%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gateshead 1+ goals

80%

Gateshead 2+ goals

47%

Gateshead 3+ goals

22%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

74%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

39%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gateshead (draw refunded)

57%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gateshead at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gateshead attack 2.00 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Gateshead defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gateshead scores more

43%

level

24%

Sutton Utd scores more

32%

Gateshead at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gateshead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

R. Styche← W. York

60'

R. Oates← D. Johnson

64'

R. Oates

70'

C. Dickson← R. Deacon

70'

R. Burge← R. Stearn

76'

D. Fitchett← M. Biamou

Gateshead

Sutton

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Aspin

60'▲R. Styche←▼W. York

60'▲R. Oates←▼D. Johnson

Gateshead substitutes

StycheOatesHanfordJonesAjala

Manager: P. Doswell

70'▲C. Dickson←▼R. Deacon

70'▲R. Burge←▼R. Stearn

76'▲D. Fitchett←▼M. Biamou

Sutton Utd substitutes

DicksonBurgeFitchettOdoiMorrell