Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gateshead vs Newcastle — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Gateshead
Gateshead
Preview
11:30
Newcastle
Newcastle
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
60%
Newcastle
model favours
21%20%60%

Newcastle have scored in 10 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gateshead21%
×Draw20%
Newcastle60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gateshead
1.27
Newcastle
2.27

Newcastle creates 79% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gateshead
1.33
Newcastle
2.20

allows per match

Gateshead
2.33
Newcastle
1.20

finishing

Gateshead+0.00on par
Newcastle+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gateshead ↓

Newcastle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gateshead or draw
40%
Gateshead or Newcastle
80%
Draw or Newcastle
79%

Winning margin

Gateshead wins by 2+
8%
Newcastle wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Gateshead 1+ goals
72%
Gateshead 2+ goals
36%
Gateshead 3+ goals
14%
Newcastle 1+ goals
90%
Newcastle 2+ goals
66%
Newcastle 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Gateshead (draw refunded)
26%
Newcastle (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gateshead at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Newcastle away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gateshead attack 1.33 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Newcastle attack 2.20 + Gateshead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gateshead scores more
21%
level
20%
Newcastle scores more
60%

Newcastle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 69% of Newcastle’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gateshead
DDWWD
Newcastle
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gateshead vs Newcastle — Match Preview

Gateshead face Newcastle on July 25, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.