Gateshead 1–1 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Gateshead

FT

1 – 1

Carlisle

8/18/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gateshead International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gateshead21%

×Draw20%

Carlisle59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GatesheadExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.33

Gateshead

1.33

Carlisle

2.33

Carlisle creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

2.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gateshead

1.33

Carlisle

2.33

allows per match

Gateshead

2.33

Carlisle

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gateshead+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gateshead ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Gateshead or draw

41%

Gateshead or Carlisle

80%

Draw or Carlisle

79%

Winning margin

Gateshead wins by 2+

9%

Carlisle wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Gateshead 1+ goals

74%

Gateshead 2+ goals

38%

Gateshead 3+ goals

15%

Carlisle 1+ goals

90%

Carlisle 2+ goals

67%

Carlisle 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Gateshead (draw refunded)

26%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gateshead at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Carlisle away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gateshead attack 1.33 + Carlisle defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Carlisle attack 2.33 + Gateshead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gateshead scores more

21%

level

20%

Carlisle scores more

59%

Carlisle at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff