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Gasogi United vs Vision — National Soccer League 2019

Gasogi United
Gasogi United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vision
Vision
12/6/2024National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 12Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gasogi United52%
×Draw26%
Vision21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gasogi United
1.48
Vision
0.83

Gasogi United creates 78% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gasogi United
1.16
Vision
0.67

allows per match

Gasogi United
1.00
Vision
1.80

finishing

Gasogi United+0.00on par
Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gasogi United ↓

Vision →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gasogi United or draw
79%
Gasogi United or Vision
74%
Draw or Vision
48%

Winning margin

Gasogi United wins by 2+
27%
Vision wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gasogi United 1+ goals
77%
Gasogi United 2+ goals
43%
Gasogi United 3+ goals
19%
Vision 1+ goals
56%
Vision 2+ goals
20%
Vision 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gasogi United (draw refunded)
71%
Vision (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gasogi United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Vision away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gasogi United attack 1.16 + Vision defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vision attack 0.67 + Gasogi United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gasogi United scores more
52%
level
26%
Vision scores more
21%

Gasogi United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gasogi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Gasogi United 3–0 Vision

Gasogi United beat Vision 3-0 in National Soccer League on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.