Gasogi United 3–0 Sunrise: Result & Stats

Gasogi United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sunrise

4/19/2024

National Soccer League · Round 27Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gasogi United43%

×Draw28%

Sunrise29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gasogi UnitedExpected goals in this matchSunrise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.99

Gasogi United

1.29

Sunrise

0.99

Gasogi United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 51 away

1.16

creates per match

0.98

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Gasogi United

1.16

Sunrise

0.98

allows per match

Gasogi United

1.00

Sunrise

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gasogi United+0.00on par

Sunrise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gasogi United ↓

Sunrise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gasogi United or draw

71%

Gasogi United or Sunrise

72%

Draw or Sunrise

57%

Winning margin

Gasogi United wins by 2+

20%

Sunrise wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gasogi United 1+ goals

72%

Gasogi United 2+ goals

37%

Gasogi United 3+ goals

14%

Sunrise 1+ goals

63%

Sunrise 2+ goals

26%

Sunrise 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gasogi United (draw refunded)

60%

Sunrise (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gasogi United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Sunrise away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gasogi United attack 1.16 + Sunrise defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sunrise attack 0.98 + Gasogi United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gasogi United scores more

43%

level

28%

Sunrise scores more

29%

Gasogi United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gasogi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff