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Gasogi United vs Rwamagana City — National Soccer League 2019

Gasogi United
Gasogi United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rwamagana City
Rwamagana City
3/10/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 23Bugesera Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gasogi United47%
×Draw29%
Rwamagana City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gasogi United
1.30
Rwamagana City
0.84

Gasogi United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gasogi United
1.16
Rwamagana City
0.69

allows per match

Gasogi United
1.00
Rwamagana City
1.44

finishing

Gasogi United+0.00on par
Rwamagana City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gasogi United ↓

Rwamagana City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gasogi United or draw
76%
Gasogi United or Rwamagana City
71%
Draw or Rwamagana City
53%

Winning margin

Gasogi United wins by 2+
22%
Rwamagana City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gasogi United 1+ goals
73%
Gasogi United 2+ goals
37%
Gasogi United 3+ goals
14%
Rwamagana City 1+ goals
57%
Rwamagana City 2+ goals
21%
Rwamagana City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gasogi United (draw refunded)
66%
Rwamagana City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gasogi United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Rwamagana City away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gasogi United attack 1.16 + Rwamagana City defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rwamagana City attack 0.69 + Gasogi United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gasogi United scores more
47%
level
29%
Rwamagana City scores more
24%

Gasogi United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gasogi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gasogi United vs Rwamagana City

Gasogi United and Rwamagana City drew 2-2 in National Soccer League on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Bugesera Stadium in Nyamata.