Gasogi United 2–1 Kiyovu Sports: Result & Stats

Gasogi United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kiyovu Sports

2/24/2025

National Soccer League · Round 18Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Gasogi United38%

×Draw29%

Kiyovu Sports33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gasogi UnitedExpected goals in this matchKiyovu Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.04

Gasogi United

1.13

Kiyovu Sports

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 96 away

1.16

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Gasogi United

1.16

Kiyovu Sports

1.07

allows per match

Gasogi United

1.00

Kiyovu Sports

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gasogi United+0.00on par

Kiyovu Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gasogi United ↓

Kiyovu Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gasogi United or draw

67%

Gasogi United or Kiyovu Sports

71%

Draw or Kiyovu Sports

62%

Winning margin

Gasogi United wins by 2+

15%

Kiyovu Sports wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gasogi United 1+ goals

68%

Gasogi United 2+ goals

31%

Gasogi United 3+ goals

11%

Kiyovu Sports 1+ goals

65%

Kiyovu Sports 2+ goals

28%

Kiyovu Sports 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gasogi United (draw refunded)

53%

Kiyovu Sports (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gasogi United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Kiyovu Sports away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gasogi United attack 1.16 + Kiyovu Sports defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kiyovu Sports attack 1.07 + Gasogi United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gasogi United scores more

38%

level

29%

Kiyovu Sports scores more

33%

Gasogi United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gasogi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff