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Gasogi United vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

Gasogi United
Gasogi United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
3/13/2022National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 21Stade Régional de Nyamirambo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gasogi United50%
×Draw27%
Etoile de l'Est23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gasogi United
1.42
Etoile de l'Est
0.85

Gasogi United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gasogi United
1.16
Etoile de l'Est
0.70

allows per match

Gasogi United
1.00
Etoile de l'Est
1.67

finishing

Gasogi United+0.00on par
Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gasogi United ↓

Etoile de l'Est →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gasogi United or draw
77%
Gasogi United or Etoile de l'Est
73%
Draw or Etoile de l'Est
50%

Winning margin

Gasogi United wins by 2+
25%
Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gasogi United 1+ goals
76%
Gasogi United 2+ goals
41%
Gasogi United 3+ goals
17%
Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
57%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
21%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gasogi United (draw refunded)
69%
Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gasogi United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gasogi United attack 1.16 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Gasogi United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gasogi United scores more
50%
level
27%
Etoile de l'Est scores more
23%

Gasogi United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gasogi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gasogi United vs Etoile de l'Est

Gasogi United and Etoile de l'Est drew 1-1 in National Soccer League on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Régional de Nyamirambo in Kigali.