Gasogi United 1–0 Amagaju: Result & Stats

Gasogi United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Amagaju

4/27/2025

National Soccer League · Round 25Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gasogi United43%

×Draw29%

Amagaju28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gasogi UnitedExpected goals in this matchAmagaju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.92

Gasogi United

1.21

Amagaju

0.92

Gasogi United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 48 away

1.16

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Gasogi United

1.16

Amagaju

0.83

allows per match

Gasogi United

1.00

Amagaju

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gasogi United+0.00on par

Amagaju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gasogi United ↓

Amagaju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gasogi United or draw

72%

Gasogi United or Amagaju

71%

Draw or Amagaju

57%

Winning margin

Gasogi United wins by 2+

19%

Amagaju wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gasogi United 1+ goals

70%

Gasogi United 2+ goals

34%

Gasogi United 3+ goals

12%

Amagaju 1+ goals

60%

Amagaju 2+ goals

23%

Amagaju 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gasogi United (draw refunded)

60%

Amagaju (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gasogi United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Amagaju away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gasogi United attack 1.16 + Amagaju defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Amagaju attack 0.83 + Gasogi United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gasogi United scores more

43%

level

29%

Amagaju scores more

28%

Gasogi United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gasogi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff