Garliava 0–1 Trakai II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Garliava

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Trakai II

5/21/2022

1 Lyga · Round 8Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Garliava41%

×Draw25%

Trakai II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GarliavaExpected goals in this matchTrakai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.39

Garliava

1.52

Trakai II

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 66 away

1.26

creates per match

1.52

1.25

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Garliava

1.26

Trakai II

1.52

allows per match

Garliava

1.25

Trakai II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garliava+0.00on par

Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garliava ↓

Trakai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Garliava or draw

65%

Garliava or Trakai II

75%

Draw or Trakai II

59%

Winning margin

Garliava wins by 2+

20%

Trakai II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Garliava 1+ goals

78%

Garliava 2+ goals

45%

Garliava 3+ goals

20%

Trakai II 1+ goals

75%

Trakai II 2+ goals

40%

Trakai II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Garliava (draw refunded)

54%

Trakai II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garliava at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garliava attack 1.26 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Garliava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Garliava scores more

41%

level

25%

Trakai II scores more

35%

Garliava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff