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Garliava vs Šilutė — Cup 2020

Garliava
Garliavaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Šilutė
Šilutė
6/16/2021CupCup · Round of 16Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Garliava13%
×Draw20%
Šilutė67%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garliava
0.78
Šilutė
2.07

Šilutė creates 165% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Garliava
0.57
Šilutė
2.00

allows per match

Garliava
2.14
Šilutė
1.00

finishing

Garliava+0.00on par
Šilutė+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garliava ↓

Šilutė →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Garliava or draw
33%
Garliava or Šilutė
80%
Draw or Šilutė
87%

Winning margin

Garliava wins by 2+
4%
Šilutė wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Garliava 1+ goals
54%
Garliava 2+ goals
18%
Garliava 3+ goals
4%
Šilutė 1+ goals
87%
Šilutė 2+ goals
61%
Šilutė 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Garliava (draw refunded)
16%
Šilutė (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garliava at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Šilutė away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garliava attack 0.57 + Šilutė defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Šilutė attack 2.00 + Garliava defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Garliava scores more
13%
level
20%
Šilutė scores more
67%

Šilutė at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Šilutė will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garliava vs Šilutė

Garliava beat Šilutė 2-1 in Cup on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas in Garliava.