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Garliava vs Šilas — 1 Lyga 2026

Garliava
Garliava
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Šilas
Šilas
7/2/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 14Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Garliava38%
×Draw25%
Šilas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garliava
1.47
Šilas
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 41 away

creates per match

Garliava
1.26
Šilas
1.63

allows per match

Garliava
1.25
Šilas
1.68

finishing

Garliava+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garliava ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Garliava or draw
63%
Garliava or Šilas
75%
Draw or Šilas
62%

Winning margin

Garliava wins by 2+
18%
Šilas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Garliava 1+ goals
77%
Garliava 2+ goals
43%
Garliava 3+ goals
18%
Šilas 1+ goals
76%
Šilas 2+ goals
42%
Šilas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Garliava (draw refunded)
51%
Šilas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garliava at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Šilas away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garliava attack 1.26 + Šilas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Šilas attack 1.63 + Garliava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Garliava scores more
38%
level
25%
Šilas scores more
37%

Garliava at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garliava vs Šilas

Garliava and Šilas drew 2-2 in 1 Lyga on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas in Garliava.