Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Garliava vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Garliava
Garliava
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jonava
Jonava
D. Vitkus 39'
M. Ndiaye 78'
4/15/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 6Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Garliava39%
×Draw26%
Jonava35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garliava
1.38
Jonava
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 72 away

creates per match

Garliava
1.26
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Garliava
1.25
Jonava
1.49

finishing

Garliava+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garliava ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Garliava or draw
65%
Garliava or Jonava
74%
Draw or Jonava
61%

Winning margin

Garliava wins by 2+
18%
Jonava wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Garliava 1+ goals
75%
Garliava 2+ goals
40%
Garliava 3+ goals
16%
Jonava 1+ goals
72%
Jonava 2+ goals
37%
Jonava 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Garliava (draw refunded)
53%
Jonava (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garliava at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garliava attack 1.26 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Jonava attack 1.32 + Garliava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Garliava scores more
39%
level
26%
Jonava scores more
35%

Garliava at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
D. Vitkus
78'
M. Ndiaye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garliava vs Jonava

Garliava and Jonava drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on April 15, 2023.

Goals: D. Vitkus (39'), M. Ndiaye (78').

The match was played at Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas in Garliava.