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Gares vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Gares
Gares
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Subiza
Subiza
11/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Complejo Polideportivo Municipal Osabidea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gares27%
×Draw26%
Subiza47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gares
1.05
Subiza
1.48

Subiza creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 93 away

creates per match

Gares
0.91
Subiza
1.32

allows per match

Gares
1.63
Subiza
1.20

finishing

Gares+0.00on par
Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gares ↓

Subiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gares or draw
53%
Gares or Subiza
74%
Draw or Subiza
73%

Winning margin

Gares wins by 2+
10%
Subiza wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gares 1+ goals
65%
Gares 2+ goals
28%
Gares 3+ goals
9%
Subiza 1+ goals
77%
Subiza 2+ goals
43%
Subiza 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gares (draw refunded)
36%
Subiza (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gares at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gares attack 0.91 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Subiza attack 1.32 + Gares defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gares scores more
27%
level
26%
Subiza scores more
47%

Subiza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gares vs Subiza

Gares beat Subiza 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Complejo Polideportivo Municipal Osabidea in Puente la Reina.