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Gares vs Cirbonero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Gares
Gares
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cirbonero
Cirbonero
10/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 7Complejo Polideportivo Municipal Osabidea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gares29%
×Draw26%
Cirbonero45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gares
1.14
Cirbonero
1.49

Cirbonero creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 92 away

creates per match

Gares
0.91
Cirbonero
1.35

allows per match

Gares
1.63
Cirbonero
1.37

finishing

Gares+0.00on par
Cirbonero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gares ↓

Cirbonero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gares or draw
55%
Gares or Cirbonero
74%
Draw or Cirbonero
71%

Winning margin

Gares wins by 2+
12%
Cirbonero wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gares 1+ goals
68%
Gares 2+ goals
32%
Gares 3+ goals
11%
Cirbonero 1+ goals
77%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
44%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gares (draw refunded)
39%
Cirbonero (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gares at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Cirbonero away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gares attack 0.91 + Cirbonero defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cirbonero attack 1.35 + Gares defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gares scores more
29%
level
26%
Cirbonero scores more
45%

Cirbonero at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gares vs Cirbonero

Cirbonero beat Gares 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Complejo Polideportivo Municipal Osabidea in Puente la Reina.