Gares 1–4 Cantolagua: Result & Stats

Gares

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Cantolagua

3/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 25Complejo Polideportivo Municipal Osabidea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gares31%

×Draw26%

Cantolagua42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaresExpected goals in this matchCantolagua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.41

Gares

1.17

Cantolagua

1.41

Cantolagua creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 77 away

0.91

creates per match

1.19

1.63

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Gares

0.91

Cantolagua

1.19

allows per match

Gares

1.63

Cantolagua

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gares+0.00on par

Cantolagua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gares ↓

Cantolagua →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gares or draw

58%

Gares or Cantolagua

74%

Draw or Cantolagua

69%

Winning margin

Gares wins by 2+

13%

Cantolagua wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gares 1+ goals

69%

Gares 2+ goals

33%

Gares 3+ goals

11%

Cantolagua 1+ goals

76%

Cantolagua 2+ goals

41%

Cantolagua 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gares (draw refunded)

42%

Cantolagua (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gares at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Cantolagua away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gares attack 0.91 + Cantolagua defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Cantolagua attack 1.19 + Gares defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gares scores more

31%

level

26%

Cantolagua scores more

42%

Cantolagua at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cantolagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff