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Gares vs Ardoi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Gares
Gares
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ardoi
Ardoi
4/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 29Complejo Polideportivo Municipal Osabidea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gares27%
×Draw27%
Ardoi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gares
1.02
Ardoi
1.42

Ardoi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 92 away

creates per match

Gares
0.91
Ardoi
1.22

allows per match

Gares
1.63
Ardoi
1.14

finishing

Gares+0.00on par
Ardoi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gares ↓

Ardoi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gares or draw
54%
Gares or Ardoi
73%
Draw or Ardoi
73%

Winning margin

Gares wins by 2+
10%
Ardoi wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gares 1+ goals
64%
Gares 2+ goals
27%
Gares 3+ goals
8%
Ardoi 1+ goals
76%
Ardoi 2+ goals
41%
Ardoi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gares (draw refunded)
37%
Ardoi (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gares at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Ardoi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.14 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gares attack 0.91 + Ardoi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ardoi attack 1.22 + Gares defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gares scores more
27%
level
27%
Ardoi scores more
46%

Ardoi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ardoi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gares vs Ardoi

Ardoi beat Gares 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Polideportivo Municipal Osabidea in Puente la Reina.