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Garelli United vs Manila Montet — PFL 2020

Garelli United
Garelli United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manila Montet
Manila Montet
6/8/2024PFLPFL · Round 7Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Garelli United76%
×Draw12%
Manila Montet12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garelli United
4.68
Manila Montet
2.00

Garelli United creates 134% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

creates per match

Garelli United
2.11
Manila Montet
0.00

allows per match

Garelli United
4.00
Manila Montet
7.25

finishing

Garelli United+0.00on par
Manila Montet+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garelli United ↓

Manila Montet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 4–1 (6%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
88%12%4.5
75%25%

Double chance

Garelli United or draw
88%
Garelli United or Manila Montet
88%
Draw or Manila Montet
24%

Winning margin

Garelli United wins by 2+
60%
Manila Montet wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Garelli United 1+ goals
99%
Garelli United 2+ goals
93%
Garelli United 3+ goals
81%
Manila Montet 1+ goals
86%
Manila Montet 2+ goals
59%
Manila Montet 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Garelli United (draw refunded)
86%
Manila Montet (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garelli United at home — creates 2.11, concedes 4.00 · 19 matches

Manila Montet away — creates 0.00, concedes 7.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garelli United attack 2.11 + Manila Montet defence 7.25 → ÷2 → 4.68

Manila Montet attack 0.00 + Garelli United defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Garelli United scores more
76%
level
12%
Manila Montet scores more
12%

Garelli United at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Garelli United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garelli United vs Manila Montet

Garelli United beat Manila Montet 4-0 in PFL on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.