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Gareji vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gareji
Gareji
CANC
11:00
Shukura
Shukura
9/29/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gareji52%
×Draw23%
Shukura24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gareji
1.77
Shukura
1.13

Gareji creates 57% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 35 away

creates per match

Gareji
2.20
Shukura
1.40

allows per match

Gareji
0.86
Shukura
1.34

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gareji or draw
76%
Gareji or Shukura
77%
Draw or Shukura
48%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+
29%
Shukura wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals
83%
Gareji 2+ goals
53%
Gareji 3+ goals
26%
Shukura 1+ goals
68%
Shukura 2+ goals
31%
Shukura 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)
68%
Shukura (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Shukura away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Shukura defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.77

Shukura attack 1.40 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gareji scores more
52%
level
23%
Shukura scores more
24%

Gareji at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gareji vs Shukura — Match Preview

Gareji face Shukura on September 29, 2022 in this Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.