Gareji 3–2 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Gareji

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Samtredia

5/30/2026

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 16Central stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Gareji55%

×Draw23%

Samtredia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GarejiExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.01

Gareji

1.77

Samtredia

1.01

Gareji creates 75% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 57 away

2.20

creates per match

1.16

0.86

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gareji

2.20

Samtredia

1.16

allows per match

Gareji

0.86

Samtredia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gareji or draw

79%

Gareji or Samtredia

77%

Draw or Samtredia

45%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+

31%

Samtredia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals

83%

Gareji 2+ goals

53%

Gareji 3+ goals

26%

Samtredia 1+ goals

64%

Samtredia 2+ goals

27%

Samtredia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)

72%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Samtredia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Samtredia attack 1.16 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gareji scores more

55%

level

23%

Samtredia scores more

21%

Gareji at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff