Gareji 6–1 Merani Martvili: Result & Stats

Gareji

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Merani Martvili

D. Lomtadze 68'

G. Kharebashvili 58', 54', 16'

L. Papava 29', 8'

G. Lezhava 66'

10/27/2023

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 31Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Gareji57%

×Draw22%

Merani Martvili21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GarejiExpected goals in this matchMerani Martvili

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.06

Gareji

1.92

Merani Martvili

1.06

Gareji creates 81% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 83 away

2.20

creates per match

1.27

0.86

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Gareji

2.20

Merani Martvili

1.27

allows per match

Gareji

0.86

Merani Martvili

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Merani Martvili →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gareji or draw

79%

Gareji or Merani Martvili

78%

Draw or Merani Martvili

43%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+

34%

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals

85%

Gareji 2+ goals

57%

Gareji 3+ goals

30%

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

65%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

29%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)

74%

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.92

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gareji scores more

57%

level

22%

Merani Martvili scores more

21%

Gareji at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

16'

29'

33'

46'

Felipe Siedekum← N. Baghishvili

46'

G. Lezhava← G. Nadareishvili

46'

L. Gadilia← L. Elbakidze

54'

G. Kharebashvili

58'

G. Kharebashvili

60'

J. Kasrelishvili← N. Apakidze

60'

S. Bermúdez← P. Poniava

60'

G. Papuashvili← S. Ekvtimishvili

66'

G. Lezhava

67'

D. Lomtadze← G. Vekua

68'

D. Lomtadze

71'

G. Tsetskhladze← L. Papava

74'

L. Oniani← D. Todua

82'

G. Bendeliani← M. Rnić

Gareji

Merani

16

▼

Rnić

17

Đurić

4

▼

Elbakidze

34

▼

Todua

33

Laghadze

30

Gagity

9

▼

Baghishvi

26

Baksanoko

32

Dagarguli

19

▼

Nadareish

10

Esonkulov

19

Sepiashvi

28

▼

Apakidze

3

Mirtskhul

32

Latsabidz

40

▼

Ekvtimish

9

▼

Poniava

15

Galakhvar

26

Gabiskiri

17

▼

Vekua

33

⚽3

Kharebash

10

⚽2

▼

Papava

Manager: D. Khomutov

60'▲J. Kasrelishvili←▼N. Apakidze

60'▲S. Bermúdez←▼P. Poniava

60'▲G. Papuashvili←▼S. Ekvtimishvili

67'▲D. Lomtadze←▼G. Vekua

71'▲G. Tsetskhladze←▼L. Papava

Gareji substitutes

6Kasrelishvili7Bermúdez8Papuashvili14Lomtadze20Tsetskhladze4Ugrekhelidze5Guruli18Tchiabrishvili21Gabunia

Manager: Z. Kibishev

46'▲Felipe Siedekum←▼N. Baghishvili

46'▲G. Lezhava←▼G. Nadareishvili

46'▲L. Gadilia←▼L. Elbakidze

74'▲L. Oniani←▼D. Todua

82'▲G. Bendeliani←▼M. Rnić

Merani Martvili substitutes

3Siedekum8Lezhava40Gadilia35Oniani13Bendeliani