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Gareji vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gareji
Gareji
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
12/8/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 36Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Gareji58%
×Draw22%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gareji
1.92
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.04

Gareji creates 85% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 55 away

creates per match

Gareji
2.20
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.22

allows per match

Gareji
0.86
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.64

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par
Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gareji or draw
80%
Gareji or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
78%
Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
42%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+
34%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals
85%
Gareji 2+ goals
57%
Gareji 3+ goals
30%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)
74%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.22 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gareji scores more
58%
level
22%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
20%

Gareji at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Gareji 0–0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Gareji and Lokomotivi Tbilisi drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni in Sagarejo.