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Gareji vs Dinamo Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gareji
Gareji
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
10/18/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 30Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Gareji64%
×Draw20%
Dinamo Zugdidi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gareji
2.20
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.01

Gareji creates 118% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 25 away

creates per match

Gareji
2.20
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.16

allows per match

Gareji
0.86
Dinamo Zugdidi
2.20

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par
Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Dinamo Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gareji or draw
84%
Gareji or Dinamo Zugdidi
80%
Draw or Dinamo Zugdidi
36%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+
41%
Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals
89%
Gareji 2+ goals
64%
Gareji 3+ goals
37%
Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)
80%
Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Dinamo Zugdidi away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.20

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.16 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gareji scores more
64%
level
20%
Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
16%

Gareji at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Gareji 1–1 Dinamo Zugdidi

Gareji and Dinamo Zugdidi drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 18, 2021.

The match was played at Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni in Sagarejo.